iShares Silver Trust, an ETF that tracks the performance of silver price, has held steady within a months-long bullish channel as investors await clarity from the Trump-Putin talks in Alaska. While optimism over the metal’s long-term demand continues to offer solid support, a positive outcome from the diplomatic meeting may ease the demand for safe-haven assets. Besides, the market is reacting to China’s weaker-than-expected figures.
Silver price consolidates as short-term losses ease optimism
Silver price has been up by close to 30% year-to-date with the heightened demand for safe havens being one of the bullish drivers. Investors have been seeking security for their investments amid the economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions. This explains the significance of Friday’s Putin-Trump meeting to precious metals and their derivatives.
A positive outcome from the talks set for take place in Alaska will likely ease the safe-haven demand. However, the Fed rate cut expectations and optimism over silver’s long-term demand, especially in the production of EVs, will likely curb those losses. Besides, pressure on the US dollar has made the precious metal less expensive for buyers holding foreign currencies.
Notably, iShares Silver Trust is also reacting to China’s industrial data, which missed economists’ expectations as domestic demand remains weak. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on Friday indicated that retail sales rose by 3.7% in July compared to the previous year. This was significantly below the expected growth of 4.6%. It was also a decline from the 4.8% growth recorded in June.
What’s more, China’s industrial output in July rose by 5.7% YoY; its weakest pace since November 2024. Analysts had expected a 5.9% growth.
After the significant growth of 5.3% observed in the year’s first half, the Chinese government appears slow to fuel up spending. While the country is on track to hit its 5% target, the risk of its full-year growth falling short of the target remains. However, long-term optimism will likely offset the current concerns and their impact on silver price.
iShares Silver Trust Technical Analysis
iShares Silver Trust has held steady above the bullish channel despite pulling back on Thursday. A look at its daily price chart shows the silver ETF finding support near the 25-day EMA. It also remains above the medium-term 50-day MA; signaling further gains in the ensuing sessions. However, with an RSI of 51, it may trade within a rather tight range as the bulls gather enough momentum for a breakout.
With the Trump-Putin meeting in focus, the SLV silver ETF will likely consolidate between the 25-day EMA at $34.27 and the resistance level at $34.84. A surge past that range will likely cap the gains at $35.11.
While a positive outcome from the Putin-Trump meeting may ease the demand for safe-haven assets, I expect the iShares Silver Trust to continue trading above the crucial support zone of $34 in the short term. A drop past that level will invalidate this bullish thesis.
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